Hello today in the morning. Keep your fingers crossed for the data to be very bad. Why? – this is the theme of this post. Of course, at the very beginning, I encourage you to subscribe, add comments and give likes if you think that these materials have any value for you. And all those who want to follow my portfolio in the October edition, I encourage you to send a special message – e-mail address below, and you will receive a message with information about how I modify my portfolio depending on the changing market situation the next day on the stock indices, on the forex , on commodities, bonds and even Bitcoin. I invite you, encourage you and let's get started. But at the very beginning, I would like to inform you that all the charts that were used to create this entry come from two platforms: xStation 5 and Bloomberg. Keep your fingers crossed for the data to be very bad.
Why? At the very beginning, it should be said that the most important event today is the macroeconomic data from the US labor market. Time: 14:30. Once again, this is the most important event for the entire financial world during today's session and this is what we will focus on. The session should have two faces. By this hour it should be very quiet, and after this hour there should be gigantic volatility. This should be the case. What we should observe in the financial markets today, of course, is what the interest rate change will be for the United States, for the other major central banks and economic areas. So let's begin. Let's see what's happening now.
What are the benchmarks already directly for the United States? They are still set for March 2023 , the implied interest rate is then to be 4.583% and this is the reference point and we will refer to it. We will observe what the change is. After these macroeconomic data for the euro area. The benchmark is July 2023 with an implied interest rate of 2.904% for the UK. This is also very important to us.
The peak is still in June 2023 impressed interest rate of 5.25%, so we will be referring to this after these publications coming out today and why this post was titled – Keep your fingers crossed, let the data be very bad. Why the worse the better? Because if today's macroeconomic data confirm the economic slowdown, it will probably have a very positive impact on the fact that in the next few months these interest rates will not go up more than now assumed, so they should support the demand for risk. And if the data are good, better than forecasts, then of course there is a good chance that the implied interest rate will go even higher, as the Fed will be given fuel to claim that earlier interest rate hikes do not have negative effects yet.
For the economy. The number of jobs is growing at a faster pace than forecasted, so it is worth being prepared for the fact that there will be even larger further interest rate hikes. And this is obviously negative for the risk, so stock indices should primarily fall in such a situation. To sum up – the worse the data, the better, i.e.
The weaker the data, the more the stock indices should grow. We should see the US dollar weaken in such a situation as the risk is likely to be bought. We should see bitcoin rise. We should witness an increase in commodity prices. And of course, if we look at the US dollar then, the worse the data, the better it should be for the Polish currency, for the domestic currency. And, of course, the opposite is true – the better the data, the worse for stock indices, worse for raw materials, worse for bitcoin and worse for the national currency, i.e. the Polish zloty. The first chart in the background shows what are the forecasts for payrolls, i.e.
The most important data that we will know, which will be published at 14:30. These indicators are the change in employment in the private sector, we can also see what these forecasts are. Another indicator is the change in employment in the industrial sector. We also see that forecasts signal that job growth was about to take place. Let me remind you that the worst situation is when these indicators are negative, because this directly signaled the trajectory towards a recession in the US economy. If the data is positive, it will signal that there are more and more jobs. And this is good news for the risk and economic growth outlook. And of course also important for the market at the end. The general unemployment rate in the United States in September, the data refer. I would like to remind you once again until September and in this case, as we can see, we are to witness the unemployment rate being maintained at 3.7%. Will this happen? We'll see. The discrepancy between the forecasts will be important. It will be important whether the unemployment rate in the United States falls or remains unchanged.
It would, of course, be the worst if it had grown. And this is what the market will be adjusting to today to discount this data. I remind you once again. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the data will be very bad, because it will help the demand for risk. This time, such a dependence, the worse it is, the better it should function. Of course, the Fed is also looking at inflation. As we can see here when deciding on interest rates. If inflation is at its highest level since the early 1980s, but has not yet reached its highs in the 1970s just after the war, there will be pressure on interest rates, of course, and the market will obviously have to adjust to it.
The market is also looking more and more at inflation, that is, those excluding food and energy prices. It is also very important for the United States. If we are on interest rates, we are, of course, constantly monitoring the reaction of market interest rates. It seems that the level of 3.80 2 percent will be the benchmark for US bonds. The market dependency of interest rate developments is likely to affect the valuation of US equities. But let's also see what the shift in the US yield curve will be. We can see that the short part of the curve goes up and the rest of the curve goes down, as if there was an attitude that there will be even stronger interest rate hikes. Will this happen? We'll see.
These data today will obviously be of great importance for German bonds for bonds. It looks like the area around 2 0.8 will be the benchmark, and we will be referring to that. We also see that the intervention of the Bank of Japan over the past few days has kept the profitability of Japanese 10-year-olds below this key 0.25% level. This means that the intervention works. The bank works, it has its effects. Work, that is, keeping the top gang, which is the most important benchmark for the Bank of Japan. We will see what happens next, because the next market that I think is worth paying attention to is the US dollar. And I will remind you again. The better the data, the greater the pressure for these interest rates to go further up, stronger, up.
So the US dollar should strengthen. And I think the market reaction yesterday, when US bond yields went up again, moved up. Also, the expectations for these interest rate increases cycle led to the strengthening of the US currency and, of course, to declines in stock indices and perturbations in the commodity market and all other risk-related markets, and of course the weakening of the domestic currency. These are the inter-market links. In my opinion, the dollar yen also needs close monitoring in the foreign exchange market. Here the volatility dies down. We're in the upper limit of a few weeks of consolidation, so we'll see.
The market will soon have to choose a direction and I am curious to see what will happen next. The link between interest rates and the US dollar is precisely the domain of the Japanese yen, and volatility should begin to increase rapidly there too. And of course we will see what happens on the stock indices, because stock indices have been behaving fantastically since the beginning of this week. Very good. Despite the fact that these market indexed interest rates went up, yesterday's declines of stock indices were not too strong. This is puzzling to me. Is the market becoming immune to the Fed's market interest rate above the neutral rate? This is very puzzling, but in my opinion the market implication is also that the market will be looking today what the shape of the weekly candle will be. The shape of the weekly candlestick on the S&P index can be very encouraging for the demand for risk, so the worse the data, the better it should be for the Wall Street indices, and of course the other way around.
On the other hand, there is a chance to close the stock index high during today's session, thus giving the shape of a weekly candlestick encouraging a strong, dynamic rebound. And I would like to remind you that the rebound from the last lows from a week ago is not accidental. This is where the lower is where the 200 session average is on the weekly chart. The situation is binary. I refer to the Monday morning post which describes this relationship very precisely. The situation should lead either to a dynamic upward movement or a dynamic downward movement at this level, and in such a situation it will mean a discount to economic processes, i.e.
A strong recession or economic slowdown. So the stock index has to decide. And the statistics again, signaling that the fourth quarter is the best quarter for investing in the stock market in the last 30 years and investors clearly see these two statistical and technical relationships, hence such an upward rebound. But the key now is, of course, what will bring us the macroeconomic data from the American labor market. As we can see the fall of the S&P index from its peaks is still somehow strong for me. However, a drop below 20% means that we are experiencing a bear market.
How is S&P behaving in relation to the trajectory of discussing a recession? There was already a special chart on this yesterday. This chart only exactly confirms that the significance of the 3600 point level is increasing and will only increase over time as this positional moving average on the weekly chart continues to rise, somehow you do not see much volatility. Today in Hong Kong in the Asian stock markets we have only slight pullbacks, so the market is still hoping that after today's data there will be rather a demand for risk. And that's good news.
If we look at European stock indices , today the task of the demand for risk is to maintain the level of 12 thousand. 500 points, because if it does , it will mean that the weekly candle led to a return to these lows from June and March, and this will encourage stock indices to rise. Today, bitcoin's job is to keep it above 20,000. dollars, and it is best of course to beat this neckline of the short-term reversal pattern of downtrend to uptrend, and in such a situation there will be a chance to break the annual downtrend line, which is also visible on the chart, which goes down, which now marks places just below 21k. dollars as a key resistance. If we are in the risk market, we are of course looking at the behavior of gold, but the price of gold is also performing beautifully this week. Very good. Here, linking the US dollar interest rate comes into play first.
If the US dollar starts to weaken, yields will go down, of course, it will fuel not only for breaking this six-month downward trend line, but also for another dynamic wave of gold price growth. If we look at the price of copper, it confirms this several-week line of downtrend, so its importance is growing. If it turned out that we beat it today, in such a situation it would of course be a strong incentive to count on further increases in stock indices. Now, in the raw material market, it is also worth observing such a connection, such an indicator, i.e. the relationship between the price of copper and gold. In such a situation we can see that gold is the better perfect speaking asset in relation to how the market interest rates behave. And of course, we are also looking at the behavior of crude oil after OPEC Plus slashed production by 2 million barrels a day this week, which is expected to take effect from November.
In this case, the smaller the top shadow of the weekly candlestick is, the more likely we are to fall back above the $ 90 level and attack the neckline of a six-month high. Also, let us keep our fingers crossed for crude oil to generate another impulse soon, preferably of course a downward trend. In such a situation, market interest rates should also discount the fall in inflationary pressure. And what even in the chart looks like what is happening in crude oil, that is, this upward rebound, leads to the strongest upward impulse from those March impulses. They were made after the start of the war in Ukraine.
And now, of course, a review of Polish assets of Poland. Assets should be happy if the data are weaker than expected, and preferably , of course, the weaker the better for Polish assets. In such a situation, the US dollar should start to weaken and there will be global pressure on the demand for risk in such a situation. We should witness the influx of capital to our country. Yesterday yields were of course also discussed by the words of CEO Glapiński, who signaled a pause in the interest rate hike cycle. And of course the market will have to discount this eventually. Plus there will be a discussion of these data from the US labor market. If the yields on Polish bonds return to the level of 7 percent.
, in such a situation, of course, it would be information that the market is perhaps even bending to attack the June yields peaks. However, the fact that we are very much, very far away from them, also signals that part of the market is already reaching the peak of inflation in our country. However, in my opinion, the biggest reaction was yesterday's reaction to the president's words Glapiński Euro zloty attacks the latest highs, the zloty dollar is also approaching the psychological level of PLN 5, so it looks like the weekly candle will be in a shape encouraging to place further weakening national currency. Will the zloty market force further interest rate hikes in the same way? We'll see. In my opinion, of course, the strength or weakness of the US dollar has an impact on the valuation of the domestic currency. If today the US dollar appreciates after the labor market data, then of course the zloty will start to weaken. And if the US dollar weakens after 14:30, ie the euro goes up, the zloty will try to strengthen its appreciation.
Finally, of course, you should set up the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which confirmed this week the importance and the existence of the upper limit of such a discount wedge, which is a couple of weekly history. So the signal is that the last highs from a few days ago this week are very significant. This is the benchmark. Each time you go to this level , the non-stinging trend becomes a fact. The downward going pattern is reversing the downtrend to upward pattern, so it would be. It would be an incentive to move more upwards towards the level of 1500 points. Today's data also has the potential to launch the Warsaw Stock Exchange. It promises to be a very exciting session and let's keep our fingers crossed that the data is very bad. But why? This is the topic of this post. Thank you for listening to this material. I encourage you to subscribe, add comments, give likes.
If you feel that these materials are of no value to you, and all those who want to track my wallet after the October edition, feel free to send a special e-mail address below and you will receive a message with information about how I modify my wallet depending on changing market situation. The next day, stock indices, forex, commodities, bonds, and even Bitcoin. I invite you and encourage you to wish her a rate of return and a nice day.